What are the odds? Maxwell predicts postseason runs and playoff chances

When the dust settles on 2019, only eight programs will be state champions covering all classifications in GHSA. That is very bleak odds for any team with aspirations on a state championship. However, Maxwell Preseason Playoff Projections reveal a good picture of what we can expect from each of our local 11 programs. FULL PROJECTIONS

Rabun County has the greatest odds to win their classification, posing a 1/7.35 chance according to Maxwell. This ranks as the fourth-best odds in Class 2A, bested only by Callaway, Hapeville Charter, and Heard County. In running one million simulations, Rabun was appearing in the finals in over 236 thousand instances, and winning the title in 119,738 scenarios.

Commerce has the sixth-best chance statistically in Class 1A-Public, with a 1/46.08 chance of winning it all. This projection had the Tigers in the state championship game in 99,918 times out of one million, and winning it 21,241 times.

Jefferson also had good projections, with a 1/73.5 chance of winning the state title. Jefferson was appearing in the finals in 58,620 simulations out of one million, and won it all in 13,422 scenarios.


Teams with a projection of simply making the playoffs. It’s almost a given for Rabun, Dawson, Jefferson, Commerce, Union, and Stephens. Habersham, Banks, and White have a real shot, whereas Lumpkin and Towns are not projected to have an easy road.

  • Rabun (99.99%)
  • Dawson (99.94%)
  • Jefferson (99.92%)
  • Commerce (98.91%)
  • Union (97.95%)
  • Stephens (89.42%)
  • Habersham (58.71%)
  • Banks (51.59%)
  • White (49.47%)
  • Lumpkin (13.67%)
  • Towns (5.0%)


For those teams that have a great shot: Rabun, Dawson, Jefferson, Commerce, Union, and Stephens, Maxwell ran one million simulations to determine how teams would fare once in the playoffs. In those trials, here is the average postseason depth for those half dozen programs. Rabun is projected to reach the quarterfinals or deeper, with Jefferson projected to advance to the quarterfinals as well. Union, Stephens, and Dawson are favored to at least get to the second round. Commerce in 1A is undefined on average depth.

  • Rabun (3.62)
  • Jefferson (2.89)
  • Union (1.60)
  • Stephens (1.52)
  • Dawson (1.51)
  • Commerce (Undefined)


  • Rabun (83.1%)
  • Jefferson (60.42)
  • Commerce (57.9%)
  • Dawson (14.4%)
  • Stephens (14.1%)
  • Union (13%)


  • Rabun (46.3%)
  • Jefferson (27.3%)
  • Commerce (27.0%)
  • Union (10.3%)
  • Dawson (5.2%)
  • Stephens (1.53%)


  • Rabun (85%)
  • Union (41.9%)
  • Jefferson (41.4%)
  • Commerce (22.5%)
  • Dawson (14.0%)
  • Stephens (5.9%)
  • Habersham (1.8%)
  • White (0.003%)
  • Lumpkin (0.003%)
  • Towns (0.002%)
  • Lumpkin (0.001%)


Absolutely nothing! Or we should just not bother playing the games. Odds are just numbers, and none of these players or coaches cares about anything but the next game.

2019 Bob & Teds GIF
Casas en Georgia

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